The Future of Tensions Between Iran and the United States: Where Are Matters Headed?
(Translated)

The relationship between Iran and the United States is one of the most complex in contemporary politics. For decades, this relationship was based on mutual interests and orbiting within the American sphere of influence. However, in the current phase, the relationship has begun to shift towards a new dynamic, fluctuating between tension and temporary de-escalation.

With the escalation of events in the region, a question arises: Are matters heading towards a major confrontation, or will the conflict remain within its current boundaries?

It is clear that the conflict between the two sides is no longer being waged through direct, conventional warfare, as was the case at the beginning of the American aggression against Iran. Instead, it relies heavily on what can be termed “indirect conflict,” where each side employs various tools, such as economic sanctions, political pressure, limited military actions, and influence through regional allies. This type of conflict allows each side to convey its messages, without sliding into an open confrontation that could be extremely costly.

One of the most likely scenarios is the continuation of the current situation, with tensions remaining under control, punctuated by sporadic escalations. This scenario, to some extent, serves the interests of both sides. The US avoids becoming embroiled in a new war or resuming a costly one, while Iran is keen to avoid extensive damage to its internal infrastructure and economy.

However, a limited escalation cannot be ruled out. A specific incident, such as targeting a military site or causing casualties, could trigger reciprocal responses aimed at deterrence without escalating into a full-blown war. The region has witnessed this type of escalation several times, and it has been contained relatively quickly.

The most dangerous scenario, however, is the possibility of the conflict transforming into a wider regional confrontation in the event of a miscalculation or uncontrolled escalation. Other regional actors might intervene, thus expanding the scope of the conflict. While this scenario is unlikely at present, it remains a real concern given the complexities of regional alliances.

A direct war between Iran and the US remains the least probable option, but it is not impossible. Such a war would be extremely costly for both sides, not only militarily, but also economically and politically, and could lead to significant disruptions in global energy markets, impacting the stability of the entire region.

If we apply these factors to the situation in Iraq, we find that Iraq is among the countries most affected by this conflict, given its geographical location and its complex relationships with both the United States and Iran. If the tension remains within its current limits, Iraq will remain an arena for political and security rivalries, constantly striving to maintain a balance between the two sides.

However, in the event of an escalation, even a limited one, Iraq is often among the first areas to be affected, whether through attacks on military sites or an increase in internal tensions, which directly impacts security, economic stability, and the lives of its people.

In the worst-case scenario, that is, a regional expansion of the conflict, Iraq could find itself at the heart of the confrontation. Therefore, Iraq’s stability remains largely dependent on the ability of the major powers to contain this conflict and prevent it from escalating.

The decisive factor remains that America’s entry into the region and its control over waterways and international shipping lanes are among the most prominent reasons for this escalation. Were it not for the agent rulers of Muslims, installed by the colonialist powers, America would not have been able to consolidate its presence in the region.

O peoples of the region, O peoples of the Islamic Ummah, how long will you continue to pay the price? It is the subservience of your rulers to America and its lackeys that has brought matters to this point. Your salvation and dignity will only be achieved by restoring your state, through which dignity is preserved and rights are protected.

Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir by
Mu’nis Hamid – Wilayah Iraq