بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
What is Happening with Iran is not Theatrics but a Difficult Surgical Operation
(Translated)
What is unfolding regarding Iran is not theatrics performance orchestrated through an agreement between the Iranian regime, the US, and the Jewish entity as some mistakenly imagine. Such a view is superficial, lacking the basic elements of political thinking, analysis, and a correct reading of events.
How could a regime like that of Iran sacrifice its key figures and leaders—across the first and second tiers, and even parts of the third—alongside the historic figures and leaders lost by its Hizb in Lebanon, likewise across the first, second, and third tiers?
As for material and military losses, the scale is immense. Was all of this merely so the Iranian regime could participate in theatrics?
The Iranian President stated, “It is regrettable that individuals working on official missions to safeguard national interests face accusations of treason.” He then added, “All factions within the country must abide by decisions based on the view of the Leader of the Revolution, Mojtaba Khamenei” (Al Jazeera).
These statements reveal a conflict between two factions in Iran. One faction seeks an agreement with the US and acceptance of a new role—that of a subordinate state—driven by the desire to preserve domestic gains, which Pezeshkian terms “safeguarding national interests.”
The second faction—represented by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran and hardliners loyal to the regime’s ideology, that of Velayat-e Faqih—refuses to abandon the regional gains Iran has secured over five decades. They view these gains as the force protecting Iran from internal disintegration, and as the regime’s first line of defense, while accusing the first faction of treason. It is quite possible that Mojtaba Khamenei is under pressure from this faction to prevent him from backing the moves of the first faction, assuming he is not utterly powerless and devoid of any real influence; for had he held the decision-making power represented by the second faction, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran, the first faction would not have found such room to maneuver!
Conversely, this confrontation has had negative repercussions for the US and the Jewish entity, manifested in the audacity to strike the Jewish entity and US bases, as well as the erosion of US prestige and the perceived invincibility of the Jewish entity. Is all of this, then, merely theatrics?!!
What is unfolding is not theatrics. Instead, it is a complex surgical operation aimed at creating a political class willing to submit completely—much like the Gulf states and their ilk—whereby the regime would abandon the export of the revolution and its strategy of confrontation beyond Iran’s borders, and instead yield 100% to US dictates.
This aligns with the arrogant Trump’s declaration that he would accept nothing less than 100% compliance. As long as there remains a window to achieve this without completely obliterating Iran—thereby avoiding a total loss of control and the ensuing consequences that would clash with US interests in the region—the chosen path is a combination of negotiations and limited strikes. This strategy affords the first faction an opportunity to assert its presence and influence public opinion within Iran.
Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir
Muhammad Said Abdullah – Wilayah Iraq