بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Answer to Question
What Lies Behind the Intense Escalation of the Yemeni Crisis?
(Translated)
Question:
After the Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces in Yemen, led by Aidarus al-Zubaidi, a member of the Presidential Council, deployed their forces in Hadramawt and al-Mahrah, the situation became very complicated. STC President Rashad al-Alimi terminated the joint defense agreement with the UAE and demanded that it withdraw its forces from Yemen within 24 hours. Saudi Arabia immediately supported him and bombed Emirati weapons in the Port of Mukalla. Saudi Arabia then demanded that the UAE comply with Rashad al-Alimi's demand and withdraw its forces from Yemen. The UAE subsequently withdrew, and finally, al-Zubaidi fled to the UAE. So, what lies behind this intense escalation of the Yemeni crisis? Is Britain losing its allies in Yemen? And does this conflict have international dimensions?
Answer:
To clarify matters, we will explain how this crisis was formed, and then what the results and situations of these events will lead to:
First: The local dimension of the crisis's formation:
1- On the surface, the crisis began to take shape when the Yemeni Transitional Council, the most steadfast supporter of the project to restore the state of South Yemen, deployed its forces to seize control of Hadramawt and Al-Mahrah and expel the forces of the Tribal Alliance led by Amr bin Habrish from the oil facilities. “Yemeni forces loyal to the Southern Transitional Council announced their control, at dawn on Thursday, of the sites belonging to oil companies in the Al-Masila area of Hadramawt Governorate, following a military deployment that included the oil fields, the surrounding facilities, and supply routes. This came after the withdrawal of forces belonging to the Hadramawt Tribal Alliance from their positions in the area, following limited clashes at some points...” (BBC, 4/12/2025).
2- Al Jazeera reported on 3/12/2025, that a Saudi delegation headed by Mohammed al-Qahtani arrived in Mukalla, the capital of Hadramawt province, and brought together the parties there. An agreement was reached to end the escalation, and a memorandum of understanding to this effect was signed. “The Hadramawt Governorate Media Office stated in a statement that the agreement was signed by the Governor of Hadramawt, Salem Ahmed al-Khanbashi, and Sheikh Amr bin Ali bin Habrish, the First Deputy Governor and Head of the Hadramawt Tribes Alliance.” (Sky News, 4/12/2025). It was agreed that the Saudi delegation would remain in Hadramawt to guarantee the implementation of the agreement.
3- (Sheikh Amr bin Habrish, head of the Hadhramaut Tribal Alliance, which is demanding autonomous-rule for the oil-rich eastern Yemeni province, said that Hadhramaut is facing an armed foreign invasion targeting sites on the coast and plateau and threatening its oil facilities. In a televised address, bin Habrish accused the Southern Transitional Council forces of "launching a treacherous attack on positions belonging to the Hadhramaut Tribal Alliance, using drones in a clear violation of the agreement concluded between the alliance and the local authority in Hadhramaut province, which resulted in deaths and injuries." (Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, 9/12/2025)).
Saudi Arabia rejected these developments. [Major General Mohammed Al-Qahtani (head of the special committee concerned with Yemen), and head of the Saudi delegation currently visiting Hadramawt Governorate, stressed his country’s position supporting the stability of the governorate, and rejected “any attempts to impose a fait accompli by force”].
4- Meanwhile, the head of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad al-Alimi, adopted a position aligned with Saudi Arabia. “Al-Alimi affirmed his categorical rejection of any unilateral actions that disrupt security and stability and undermine the authority of the legitimate government, stressing the need for full adherence to the ceasefire agreement reached in Hadramawt Governorate. Al-Alimi's statements came before his departure from the interim capital, Aden, to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.” (Al-Quds Newspaper, 5/12/2025).
5- When Saudi Arabia's efforts to restore the situation to what it was before the UAE deployed the Southern Transitional Council forces to Hadramawt and Al-Mahrah failed, reaching a dead end, the crisis intensified and took on regional dimensions. “On Tuesday, Rashad Al-Alimi, head of the Presidential Leadership Council in Yemen, issued a decision to cancel the joint defense agreement with the United Arab Emirates and gave Emirati forces 24 hours to leave Yemen.” (RT, 30/12/2025). He also ordered the Homeland Shield Forces (affiliated with the Ministry of Defense) to move and take over all camps in the two governorates.
6- Saudi Arabia immediately supported this move, and the crisis escalated. Saudi forces bombed weapons and ammunition sent by the UAE to the Port of Mukalla to support the Southern Transitional Council. “The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen announced on Tuesday that it had carried out a limited military operation targeting weapons and combat vehicles that had arrived from the UAE at the Port of Mukalla in Hadramawt Governorate.” (Sada News, 30/12/2025). Thus, a severe crisis formed in Yemen, which diplomatic efforts failed to resolve, and it worsened regionally. Saudi Arabia demanded that the Presidential Council expel the UAE from the Yemeni arena, and then bombed the weapons that the UAE had sent to the Southern Transitional Council in Hadramawt, threatening a severe crisis between Saudi Arabia and the UAE similar to what happened between Saudi Arabia and Qatar in 2017.
7- The threats continued until the UAE "submitted" and announced the withdrawal of its forces from Yemen. “The UAE Ministry of Defense announced on Tuesday the termination of the remaining counter-terrorism teams in Yemen of its own volition, ensuring the safety of its personnel, and in coordination with relevant partners...” (RT, 30/12/2025). Saudi Arabia continued to issue warnings to the UAE's allies in Yemen (the Southern Transitional Council led by Aidarus al-Zubaidi) to withdraw from Hadramawt and al-Mahrah. The Council initially refused to comply, but then began to show some compliance under Saudi pressure, offering a joint presence or a partial withdrawal. “The Southern Transitional Council forces in Yemen began withdrawing from several areas in the Hadramawt coast and valley...” (Al-Modon, 31/12/2025). This withdrawal was not a final solution to the crisis, but rather a deception!
8- Then, Al-Zubaidi fled from Aden to Abu Dhabi via Somaliland on 8 January 2026, according to the coalition's media announcement. The Saudi Defense Minister then stated that “the Kingdom, in consultation with southern figures, would form a preparatory committee to organize the Riyadh conference.” On Friday morning, Abdul Rahman Al-Subaihi, Secretary-General of the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen, announced the dissolution of the council and all its bodies, declaring “that they would work to achieve the just southern goal through a comprehensive southern conference under the sponsorship of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.” (Al Jazeera, 9/1/2026).
Second: The international dimension
1- This dimension is clear and unambiguous. The rulers of Saudi Arabia are agents of America, implementing its policies, and the rulers of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are agents of the British, implementing Britain’s policies. They are on opposite sides, so their interests clash in Yemen, and they stand on the brink of conflict or enter one of its doors. However, the Yemeni parties involved in this conflict, until recently, were both agents of the British. Aidarus al-Zubaidi, who leads the Transitional Council in southern Yemen and is one of eight members of the Presidential Council, is an agent of Britain and coordinates all his actions with the UAE.
2- As for Rashad al-Alimi, the head of the Southern Transitional Council, he too was once aligned with the British, but he strongly supported Saudi Arabia and demanded the UAE's withdrawal from Yemen. The UAE is Britain's powerful tool for maintaining its influence in Yemen.
To clarify:
a- In 2022, a Presidential Leadership Council was established, with Rashad al-Alimi holding presidential powers, while the other seven members held the powers of the vice president. Saudi Arabia and the US representative agreed to the formation of this presidential council, despite most of its members being from the Yemeni political establishment aligned with the British. However, they were unconcerned because Saudi Arabia controlled the council through financial and security support, especially since it included four members from the Southern Transitional Council to appease it. Furthermore, al-Alimi, who had been a British ally and held high-ranking political positions since the era of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, resided in Saudi Arabia and relied heavily on Saudi financial and security aid. All of this gave Saudi Arabia significant leverage over him, which has grown considerably in recent times.
b- Therefore, his stance was sharp in opposing the attack launched by the Southern Transitional Council on the governorates of Hadramawt and Al-Mahrah at the beginning of December. He didn't stop there, but also took a firm position demanding the UAE's withdrawal from the Yemeni arena. This causes significant damage to Britain's remaining influence in Yemen. This indicates a shift in allegiance, and his recent statement further suggests, if not confirms, this: “The head of the Presidential Leadership Council in Yemen, Rashad al-Alimi, stated today that protecting the strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia is a national responsibility. The Yemeni leadership understands the gains it achieves and is also aware of the risks of jeopardizing it, emphasizing that this partnership constitutes a fundamental pillar in supporting efforts to restore the Yemeni state.” (Al-Arabiya, 1/1/2026). Consequently, senior British agents within the Presidential Council attacked him, claiming he was acting beyond his authority. They issued a joint statement saying that they ("followed with grave concern the unilateral actions and decisions taken by the head of the Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad al-Alimi, including the declaration of a state of emergency and the issuance of political and security pronouncements. “Dangerous, even going so far as to claim that the United Arab Emirates should be expelled from the Arab coalition and from Yemeni territory.” (Independent Arabia, 30/12/2025)). However, Al-Alimi’s change of allegiance from the British to Saudi Arabia does not mean the end of British influence in South Yemen, but it has weakened it, especially after Abdul Rahman Al-Subaihi announced the dissolution of the Southern Transitional Council.
Third: Upon examining this intense conflict, we find that it revolves around Hadramawt and, subsequently, Al-Mahrah Governorate:
1- Hadramawt, which comprises approximately one-third of Yemen, remained on the margins of the conflict throughout the years of the Yemeni war. It was implicitly considered to be within the areas controlled by the Southern Transitional Council, which seeks to separate southern Yemen from the north. Saudi interventions there were limited. In 2024, Saudi Arabia supported the entry of Yemeni government forces (Rashad al-Alimi) into Hadramawt, while the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council opposed this. (Balqees website, 3/6/2024). Saudi interventions in Hadramawt remained limited until Trump came to power in America, at which point Saudi interventions intensified and reached their peak in recent threats against the UAE and the Southern Transitional Council.
2- As for the increased Saudi intervention in Hadramawt after the Trump administration took office, it is quite evident. Since the beginning of 2025, Saudi Arabia has been exerting considerable influence in Hadramawt, contacting tribal leaders and cultivating followers. It found its ideal partner, Amr bin Habrish, the leader of the Hadramawt Tribal Alliance and the First Deputy Governor of Hadramawt. Saudi Arabia provided him with support and empowered him, leading him to seek greater control and dominance in Hadramawt. (In February 2025, bin Habrish escalated his activities by forming the "Hadramawt Protection Forces," coinciding with the announcement of the oil export halt. (Al Jazeera Net, 3/12/2025)). He was then received by senior officials in Riyadh, including the Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff of the Saudi Army, after Saudi Arabia sent a military plane to transport him from Seiyun to Riyadh and showered him with support (Al-Arab Newspaper, 29/3/2025). Upon his return from Riyadh, he announced in May 2025 the establishment of six military brigades comprising 35,000 fighters, and the formation of new units, specialized security forces, such as private security and rescue services, and finally, Saudi Arabia pushed its man, Amr bin Habrish, to take control of the oil companies, which was the straw that broke the camel's back for the Transitional Council led by Aidarus al-Zubaidi, so he rolled up his sleeves to bring Hadramawt back under his control, which ignited the crisis.
3- Then there is another matter, which is that the vast Hadramawt Governorate sits atop a precious treasure of natural mineral wealth, including rare earth minerals such as scandium, which was discovered in abundant quantities in the coastal Hadramawt districts of Brom Mayfa and Hajar. Scandium is used in the manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft, as confirmed by Aden City website, 7/11/2025, quoting the Geological Survey Authority in Hadramawt. This discovery in Hadramawt would put Yemen on the global map of rare earth minerals. In addition, the black sands of Hadramawt are rich in minerals such as ilmenite, rutile, zircon, and magnetite, which international companies are competing to invest in. There is also oil, marble, and granite in Hadramawt. “Yet Yemen stands out as the only Arab country that has secured a place for itself on the list of countries producing rare earth minerals in the Middle East...” (Energy Platform, based in Washington, 8/7/2025). These rare earth elements are what has driven the Trump administration in many of its international policies to counter China's dominance over these rare earth elements, which govern sensitive industrial processes such as electronic chips.
4- Thus, it becomes clear that the Trump administration is the one that pushed Saudi Arabia to tamper with the stability of Hadramawt. The attempts by the tribal alliance, led by Bin Habrish, to seize control of oil companies and escalate calls for autonomy prompted the British-backed group (the UAE and its local proxies, such as the Southern Transitional Council) to attack and seize Hadramawt, along with Al-Mahrah Governorate. This drove Saudi Arabia, or rather the Trump administration, into a frenzy, resulting in harsh measures against the UAE—measures unprecedented since their alliance in Operation Decisive Storm in 2015. These harsh measures included bombing Emirati weapons and threatening its allies in the Southern Transitional Council. This indicates the great seriousness with which the Trump administration views this issue—the issue of rare earth minerals in Hadramawt. America is not out of the picture, even if it is confident in its Saudi instrument. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio contacted Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan “during which they discussed the situation in Yemen and issues affecting regional security and stability.” (RT, 30/12/2025).
Fourth: In conclusion, the new development on the Yemeni scene is that the Trump administration is focusing on Hadramawt because of its rare earth minerals, which would enable America to counter China's dominance in this sensitive sector that governs other industrial operations. This also likely leads to a shift in the allegiance of Yemeni leaders from the British to America, most notably President Rashad al-Alimi. It should be noted that Chinese companies are already exploring for rare earth minerals in Hadramawt, so securing these minerals is a matter of urgency for Trump before China gains control over them. Thus, the agents of the kafir (disbelieving) nations are instigating the fighting in Yemen to meet the objectives of their masters. This series of tragic events continues not only in Yemen but also in Sudan and other Muslim countries, where Muslims kill each other in conflicts that their agent rulers convince them are in their best interest, encouraging them to sacrifice everything. However, these conflicts are in reality fought in defense of the interests of the kafir nations. This series will continue until the strongest group in the nation rises up, overpowers its rulers, holds them to a severe reckoning, and establishes a state of justice, mercy, and guidance—the Khilafah (Caliphate) State will be established according to the method of the Prophethood, after which there will be whatever good Allah wills for Islam and Muslims, blessings from heaven, grace, glory, and dignity.
[إِنَّ اللَّهَ بَالِغُ أَمْرِهِ قَدْ جَعَلَ اللَّهُ لِكُلِّ شَيْءٍ قَدْراً]
“Certainly Allah achieves His Will. Allah has already set a destiny for everything.” [At-Talaq: 3]
And tomorrow is near for those who wait.
22 Rajab 1447 AH
11 January 2026 CE