بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
The United Nations and its organizations have described the situation in Sudan as the world's largest humanitarian catastrophe and the biggest hunger and displacement crisis. The Deputy Spokesperson for the US State Department stated, “More than 150,000 people have been killed and more than 14 million displaced, and the tragedy continues.” The Minister of Social Affairs reported that the ministry had documented 1,800 cases of rape since the outbreak of the war until October 2025, not including the incidents in El Fasher and Kordofan. These rapes are often committed in front of family members, in addition to the abduction and trafficking of women and children, who are then sold in neighboring countries. Sudan Tribune reported that the International Labour Organization stated that 37% of health facilities are out of service due to bombing and attacks, with 1,858 medical personnel killed and 490 injured, according to a World Health Organization report. The unemployment rate has reached 80%, up from 32% before the war, with 5 million people losing their primary source of income. The local currency has depreciated from 570 Sudanese pounds to the dollar in April 2023 to 4,200 pounds now. The customs exchange rate has risen from 18 to 20 pounds at the start of the war, then to 2,769 pounds, and now to 3,222 pounds, resulting in soaring prices for goods and services.
The writer John Lyly’s proverb of 1579, in his Euphues, “All is fair in love and war” aptly describes the situation we are facing in the Sudanese war. It has become a painfully resonating phrase used to describe all violent conflicts that leave behind a catastrophic situation like ours. The civil wars plaguing more than 30 countries—26 of them in Africa alone—are manifestations of international colonial conflict. They have led to the partitioning of nations like Congo, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan, thus weakening these states and enabling colonial powers to tighten their grip on these fragile, war-torn, and impoverished entities. The continent's debt has reached over $400 billion, equivalent to more than 70% of its combined GDP. Furthermore, these conflicts have left behind more than 30 million landmines, representing a quarter of the world's total landmines!
Where does the war stand in its fourth year?
Regarding the military situation, 11 out of 18 states remain under the control of the Rapid Support Forces, while the remaining seven states are constantly threatened by drone attacks, targeting vital infrastructure and army positions, with civilians not even being spared. Under these circumstances, armed groups have proliferated, particularly in eastern and northern Sudan. There are now more than 110 armed movements, 90 of which are aligned with one side or the other in the conflict. The intensified spread of the war to North and South Kordofan and South Blue Nile states confirms that there are no signs of an end to the conflict or a decisive military victory. The significant diversity in the identities of the militias further threatens to perpetuate the state of war and instability. There are armed movements and militias with ideological underpinnings, including 25 Islamist movements, as well as regional and tribal groups. Northern Sudan is witnessing, for the first time, the presence of armed militias. In July 2025, Mohamed Sayed Ahmed, known as al-Jakoumi, announced the training of 50,000 fighters in the Northern Entity Movement. Other groups include the Awlad Qamar force in the Northern State and the People’s Forces of the Central Region in Gezira State.
The presence and proliferation of weapons in the hands of militias with regional, tribal, self-serving, and ideological orientations complicates the situation and weakens the prospects for peace.
As for the political reality, given the existing military and militia dynamics, several scenarios are possible, most notably the Libyan scenario. In February 2025, the Rapid Support Forces announced a transitional government in the Darfur region, with Hemedti declaring himself its head. Meanwhile, General Burhan’s government remained in the states controlled by the Port Sudan government, and has now moved to Khartoum, similar to what happened in Libya, where the world is moving towards recognizing the existence of two governments, with a single budget recently announced for both. The most terrifying scenario is the Somalization of Sudan by dividing it into mini-states: in Darfur, the center, the north, the east, South Kordofan, and South Blue Nile, as happened in the division of Somalia into three countries.
The colonialist conflict and its role in the war in Sudan and its aftermath are undeniable. The military—the army and the Rapid Support Forces—represent American interests in Sudan, while civilians represent British interests.
A report by non-governmental organizations confirmed that the war has led to displacement, homelessness, and famine, with millions of families eating only one meal a day, sometimes for days at a time. According to the 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, 61.7% of the Sudanese population suffers from food insecurity, approximately 29 million people (Reuters, April 13, 2026). A UN report also stated that Sudan is facing the world’s largest displacement crisis amidst grave human rights violations and a lack of funding. The UNHCR reported that there are 14 million internally displaced persons.
This situation creates a fertile ground for the intervention of colonial powers seeking to exploit the country and its resources. For example, direct support for the Rapid Response Window (RRW) aims to enhance women's participation and influence in the peace process or peace agreement. Similarly, in the economic sphere, the Minister of State for Finance and the Governor of the Bank of Sudan met with the World Bank’s Executive Director for the African Group, as well as at the Spring Meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and with the UK’s Executive Director at the IMF and the World Bank... all attempt to influence the situation in Sudan.
In short, the military and civilian leadership have mortgaged the country to the interests of the colonialist. Prime Minister Kamil Idris stated on April 18, 2026, during a press conference, that the government was about to launch a package of strategic projects, foremost among them a “Sudan Marshall Plan” to rebuild what the war had destroyed. This was modeled after US Secretary of State George Marshall's plan to rebuild Europe after World War II, later known as the Marshall Plan of 1948. Kamil Idris's statements echoed those of Burhan, who is offering the country and its resources to America. In an article he wrote for the Wall Street Journal on November 26, 2025, he stated: “When the war ends, and it must end, Sudan wants to be a strong partner to the U.S. We want to help protect regional stability, fight terrorism, and rebuild our shattered cities and towns. American companies will have an important role to play in reconstruction, investment, and long-term development.”
From all of the above, we conclude that the people of Sudan are destined for hardship, suffering, and perhaps even fragmentation and ruin, unless sincere and aware individuals act to prevent the country from sliding down this dangerous path. This cannot be achieved unless we hold accountable the politicians and military figures loyal to the disbelieving West and its projects through political and intellectual actions that expose their plans and their treachery. It is imperative that sincere individuals within the army, security forces, and police seize power from the hands of agents and traitors and grant nussrah (military support) to those working to establish the Khilafah (Caliphate). The Khilafah alone is capable of cutting off the hand of the colonialist, expelling them from Muslim lands, establishing the Shariah Law of Allah (swt), protecting the sanctity and dignity of Muslims, and ensuring their wealth remains in their own hands, not in the hands of their enemies. For such a goal, let those who strive, strive.
* Head of the Central Contact Committee of Hizb ut Tahrir in Wilayah Sudan